El Niño is strengthening rapidly across the tropical Pacific, with the latest observations showing the developing event has already moved beyond previous temperature benchmarks. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) expects conditions to intensify further towards the end of 2026, raising the likelihood of significant shifts in temperature and rainfall patterns across the world.
The WMO’s September update found that sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific had continued to rise sharply. Its latest seasonal forecast puts the average Niño 3.4 temperature anomaly at around 3.6°C for September to November, with the event expected to reach its peak around November and December. The organisation also puts the likelihood of El Niño continuing through to February 2027 at close to 100%.
The significance of the current event is becoming clearer as observations catch up with earlier forecasts. The Met Office reported on 22 September that sea surface temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific have now exceeded levels recorded during previous El Niño events, making this the strongest event in its observational record. Scientists will continue to assess how the exceptional magnitude of the event translates into impacts across different regions.
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern, but its influence extends far beyond the Pacific. Changes in ocean temperatures alter atmospheric circulation, affecting rainfall, temperatures and weather systems across different parts of the world. The WMO expects above-normal temperatures across almost all land areas during September to November, alongside substantial changes in rainfall patterns. These effects will vary between regions and will also be influenced by other climate drivers.
For logistics and supply chains, these changes matter because weather disruption can quickly become an operational issue. Drought, flooding, extreme heat and storms can affect agricultural production, infrastructure, transport networks and access to key resources. A disruption in one part of a supply chain can then create consequences elsewhere, particularly where businesses depend on international sourcing and tightly connected transport networks.
The risks are not limited to countries directly exposed to the strongest El Niño impacts. The Met Office has highlighted an increased likelihood of wetter and stormier conditions across north-west Europe, including the UK, during autumn and early winter. It also stresses that El Niño is only one influence on UK weather and cannot determine individual weather events.
For businesses operating road, rail, maritime and warehousing networks, greater weather volatility can create practical challenges around routes, infrastructure, delivery schedules and fleet availability. The wider supply chain can face similar pressures if suppliers experience disruption or if changing conditions affect the availability and movement of goods.
This makes climate information increasingly relevant to decisions that sit outside traditional sustainability teams. Understanding where networks are vulnerable, identifying alternative routes and suppliers, reviewing contingency plans and improving visibility across the supply chain can all help businesses prepare for disruption before it occurs.
The WMO has emphasised the importance of preparedness and early-warning systems as the event develops, highlighting the role that climate information can play in helping governments, businesses and other climate-sensitive sectors prepare for potential impacts.
The developing El Niño therefore presents two connected challenges for logistics. Businesses need to consider how they can reduce the emissions contributing to long-term climate change, while also preparing for the changing conditions that are already creating operational risks. Neither can be addressed effectively in isolation.
As El Niño moves towards its expected peak later this year, collaboration across the logistics and supply chain sector will be increasingly important. Sharing knowledge, understanding exposure and identifying practical responses can help businesses build greater resilience while continuing the transition towards lower-carbon operations.
At Sustainable Logistics LIVE London 2026, we will be exploring these challenges and the action needed across the sector, from building more resilient supply chains to identifying where collaboration can accelerate progress.
Join us at Sustainable Logistics LIVE London on 10 November to explore what action the logistics sector can take and how greater collaboration can help businesses respond to the challenges ahead. For more information and to view the agenda, visit: SLL2026 London – Shape Tomorrow
Source:
World Meteorological Organization (2026) ‘El Niño set to become very strong, raising risks of extreme weather into 2027’, WMO, 3 September
Met Office (2026) ‘Record-breaking El Niño surpasses previous benchmarks’, Met Office, 22 September.