The UK Government has set a new target to increase the amount of freight moved by rail by at least 40% by 2040, creating a new milestone towards its longer-term ambition of at least 75% growth by 2050.
Announced by Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander on 8 September, the target is intended to give the rail freight sector greater certainty as Great British Railways (GBR) takes shape. The Government says the growth could increase the annual value of goods moved by rail from £33.7 billion to £49.5 billion, while avoiding around one million tonnes of CO₂ emissions each year compared with moving the same freight by road.
The Government is also identifying where it expects much of this growth to come from. By 2040, it anticipates a 65% increase in high-value goods moved by rail, alongside a 45% increase in construction goods and a 7% increase in critical goods. High-value goods include areas such as intermodal freight, cars, white goods, wine and medicines, highlighting the potential for rail to play a greater role beyond its more traditional freight markets.
For the logistics sector, the significance of the announcement goes beyond the headline percentage. Delivering this level of growth will require rail to become a more integrated part of how businesses plan and manage their supply chains. More freight will need to move through an already heavily used network, making capacity, access, terminals and connections between different modes increasingly important.
The Government intends for Great British Railways to have a central role in this. The Railways Bill currently before Parliament would give GBR responsibility for supporting rail freight growth, including strategic oversight of network access and specific duties relating to freight. A dedicated member of the GBR board will also have responsibility for freight, placing the needs of operators and the businesses they serve more directly within decision-making.
For businesses considering how to reduce the emissions associated with freight, this could create further opportunities for modal shift. Moving more goods by rail can reduce reliance on road freight while also helping to address congestion and improve supply chain resilience. However, achieving the Government’s ambition will depend on whether the infrastructure and commercial conditions needed to make that shift possible develop alongside the target.
DP World’s Modal Shift Programme provides a practical example of how commercial incentives can help make that shift possible. Introduced at DP World Southampton in 2023, the programme was designed to make rail more financially attractive for import-laden containers, encouraging cargo owners to move goods from road to rail for onward journeys. By July 2026, the proportion of containers moved by rail from the port had increased to 29% compared with 21% before the programme, alongside more than 211,000 truck journeys removed from the road network and over 17 million road miles transferred to rail. The programme demonstrates how financial incentives, infrastructure and customer engagement can work together to make modal shift a commercially viable option, rather than simply an environmental ambition.
Freightliner has welcomed the new target announcement, but its response also points towards the scale of the challenge ahead. The operator described the 40% target as a “floor, not a ceiling”, arguing that rail freight could surpass the target if Government and industry work together to create the framework needed to unlock further growth. Freightliner also highlighted the Government’s expectation of 65% growth in high-value goods, with greater movement of containers by rail expected to be central to achieving the wider ambition. The company says it is already investing in additional capacity and is prepared to contribute to that growth.
Kelly Hobson, MD Shape Tomorrow explains: “The new rail freight target is a positive signal because decarbonising logistics cannot be achieved by simply replacing every diesel HGV with another vehicle powered differently. We have to look at the system as a whole and move freight using the most appropriate mode.
“Diesel-hauled rail freight can reduce carbon emissions by 76% per tonne compared with road haulage, making modal shift one of the commercially available decarbonisation opportunities businesses can explore today.
“What I find particularly interesting is the shift we are already seeing within the UK haulage market. Forward-thinking hauliers are expanding their product portfolios to include rail and multimodal solutions, rather than assuming growth must mean investing in additional vehicles. That changes the conversation from ‘how do we decarbonise the truck?’ to ‘what is the smartest, lowest-carbon way to move this freight?’
The Government’s new target should give the market greater confidence to develop those solutions, but the real measure of success will be how quickly we turn ambition into accessible, commercially viable services that shippers can actually procure.”
That emphasis on collaboration is important. A target alone will not create additional rail capacity, new terminals or the commercial models needed to make rail an attractive option for more shippers. Growth will require infrastructure investment, coordination between government, rail operators, infrastructure managers and freight customers, and greater consideration of rail within wider supply chain and procurement decisions.
The 2040 target therefore represents an important shift in the conversation around rail freight. It gives the sector a clearer direction and puts a measurable ambition behind the Government’s recognition that rail has a role to play in economic growth, supply chain resilience and logistics decarbonisation. The next question is how that ambition translates into practical action across the freight network.
Setting targets is one thing. Delivering the infrastructure, investment and collaboration needed to meet them is another. At Sustainable Logistics LIVE London 2026, we will be exploring exactly that question: what actions can businesses take to accelerate logistics decarbonisation, and what collaboration is needed across the industry to turn ambition into measurable progress? Join us at SLL to be part of the conversation: Sustainable Logistics LIVE 2026 London Tickets, Tuesday 10 November • 9 AM – 4:30 PM | Eventbrite
Read the official Government statement on the 2040 rail freight growth target for the full announcement and details: Rail freight growth 2040 target – GOV.UK