For many businesses, El Niño is viewed as a weather event that affects regions thousands of miles away. In reality, its impacts are felt throughout global supply chains, influencing everything from agricultural production and shipping routes to commodity prices and business resilience.
Recent analysis published by Nature suggests the El Niño event currently developing in the Pacific Ocean could become one of the strongest on record, increasing the likelihood of more extreme weather patterns over the coming months and into 2027. While the exact strength of the event remains uncertain, scientists agree that the combination of a strong El Niño and a warming climate has the potential to amplify disruption across multiple sectors.
El Niño is part of the naturally occurring El Niño Southern Oscillation, often referred to as ENSO. During an El Niño event, sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean become warmer than average. Although this warming occurs in one region of the world, it influences atmospheric circulation on a global scale, changing rainfall patterns, temperatures and storm activity across continents.
Historically, strong El Niño events have been linked to flooding in some regions, prolonged drought in others and increased risks to agriculture, fisheries and infrastructure. They have also contributed to global temperature records being broken, as natural climate variability combines with long term human driven warming.
The latest forecasts suggest this year’s event may strengthen more rapidly than previous El Niño episodes. If that happens, 2027 could become one of the warmest years ever recorded, while weather related disruption is expected to increase across many of the world’s major trading regions.
For logistics and supply chain professionals, these forecasts are about far more than climate science.
Extreme weather has become an increasingly significant operational risk. Drought can reduce river levels and restrict inland shipping. Heavy rainfall and flooding can damage transport infrastructure and delay deliveries. Heatwaves place additional pressure on road, rail and warehouse operations, while changing weather patterns can reduce agricultural yields and affect the availability of key commodities.
The result is greater uncertainty throughout global supply chains.
Many organisations have traditionally planned for isolated disruption. However, climate related events are becoming more interconnected. A single weather event can quickly create knock on effects across sourcing, manufacturing, transport and customer demand, particularly within globally connected supply chains.
This is why resilience is becoming just as important as emissions reduction.
Building resilient supply chains is no longer simply about having alternative suppliers or holding additional stock. It increasingly requires businesses to understand where climate risks exist across their operations, improve visibility throughout their logistics networks and strengthen collaboration with suppliers and transport partners before disruption occurs.
These are also the characteristics of organisations making the greatest progress on sustainability.
Businesses that invest in better data, stronger partnerships and more connected supply chains are often improving both environmental performance and operational resilience at the same time. Rather than treating sustainability and resilience as separate priorities, leading organisations are recognising that they reinforce one another.
Events such as El Niño provide a timely reminder that climate risk is now business risk.
While no organisation can prevent natural climate cycles, businesses can decide how prepared they are to respond. Those that continue investing in supply chain visibility, collaborative partnerships and long term resilience will be far better positioned to navigate an increasingly unpredictable operating environment.
At Shape Tomorrow, we believe the conversation around sustainable logistics must extend beyond carbon reduction alone. Creating future ready supply chains means understanding the environmental, commercial and operational risks that businesses face, then building the capability to respond. Conversations like these are exactly what Sustainable Logistics LIVE is designed to explore, bringing together industry leaders to share practical insights on building more resilient, efficient and sustainable supply chains. If you’re ready to be part of the discussion shaping the future of logistics, secure your place today and get your tickets now: Sustainable Logistics LIVE 2026 London Tickets, Tuesday 10 November • 9 AM – 4:30 PM | Eventbrite