A new report from S&P Global highlights a significant shift in the global energy landscape. Research indicates that growth in fossil fuel demand is beginning to slow, with worldwide demand expected to rise by less than 1% in 2026 compared with the previous year. While fossil fuels will remain a central part of the energy system for decades, this represents a noticeable shift from past patterns and reflects the steady evolution of global energy production and usage.
Energy analysts emphasize that this slowdown does not signal an immediate decline in fossil fuel consumption. Overall energy demand continues to grow, and coal, oil, and gas still contribute to a substantial share. However, the expansion of renewable technologies, improved energy efficiency, and changing industrial activity are helping to limit additional fossil fuel growth. Solar and wind generation, for example, is expected to grow more than 17% in the same period.
Key takeaways from the report include:
- Renewables already meet nearly 30% of global electricity demand (2023), and growth is accelerating.
- Clean energy expansion creates new dependencies, with supply chains for critical minerals and equipment still heavily concentrated in China.
- Climate policy remains fragmented, with differing approaches from major emitters such as China and the US.
- AI and data centers are emerging as major pressure points, with electricity demand expected to nearly double by 2030.
- Climate adaptation and resilience planning is underdeveloped, despite rising exposure to physical climate risks.
The report underlines that the energy transition is underway, but unevenly, and new risks are emerging. Geopolitics, trade policy uncertainty, and energy security concerns continue to complicate long-term planning. Governments, businesses, and investors are accelerating efforts to expand renewable energy, electrify transport and industry, and implement policies to reduce emissions. At the same time, energy affordability and security remain critical as countries balance climate ambition with economic realities.
Despite the positive trend, researchers warn that the current pace of change is insufficient to meet climate targets. To limit warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, fossil fuel demand must sharply decline over the next decade. The slowdown in growth is encouraging, but it is still growth, falling short of the reductions required under international climate goals.
Overall, the study suggests that global fossil fuel demand may be approaching a plateau. While progress varies across regions and sectors, the combined impact of renewable energy expansion, efficiency improvements, and evolving policy frameworks is beginning to reshape the global energy landscape. The speed at which these trends continue will play a critical role in shaping the future of the energy transition.
Read the full article here: S&P Report: Future Energy Trends Amid Geopolitical Shifts